Quantifying Uncertainty in Innovation Project Management

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Category: Opportunity Analysis

Format: Presentation

Product innovation has been described as the way out of today’s difficult business environment. However, the rate of success of development projects, in particular white space or disruptive innovation projects remains too low.  We believe that a reason for the low success rate is the erroneous application of analysis methods designed for incremental innovation like NPV and DCF to projects with high levels of uncertainty.In this chapter of the “Beyond Stage-Gate” series, we will discuss the use of Probabilistic Decision Analysis in the management of innovation projects with high levels of uncertainty. Probabilistic decision analysis, when combined with the right management processes like Discovery Driven Planning is a very effective approach to evaluate and manage the risk and potential of product innovation projects. We will analyze the launch of the iPad as a case study.

Session Leader: Jose A. Briones
Dr. Jose A. Briones is the Director of Operations of SpyroTek Performance Solutions, a diversified supplier of specialty materials, BPM software and innovation support services. Dr. Briones also holds managerial positions in several companies, including: CSI Inc., Smarty-Ears, and Melenaus Corp.  Dr. Briones has launched and commercialized over 35 new products and is named as inventor in 5 patents.